Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for GBP/USD

According to the latest COT report (Commitments of Traders dated 08/18/20), open interest in the pound rose again and amounted to 187043 (+7972). The growth of open interest this time was provided by the continued increase in the bearish direction in the total position (p.p. 11568; +7255). After a sequential change in preferences in clean positions (general and Commercial group), there is a change of direction in the Non-Commercial and Dealer Intermediary groups. At the same time, it can be noted that the pace of change in all groups is quite active. Changing the direction during the reporting period, the new leaders gained 3.4% of the advantage in Non-Commercial and 3.8% in Dealer intermediate, and in the Commercial group, the predominance of short positions, which was indicated last time with a margin of only 0.7%, is now 9.5%.

The main conclusion

An active struggle of interests continues, accompanying the change of long-term and current priorities. In life, it often happens that the majority at the moment of change are doomed to losses, but those who started and organized, who will determine the future direction and priority, of course, will have a profit.

Technical picture

The scale of the oppositely directed movements of the last days of the last week only confirms the vital conclusion. The opponent responds to the activity of players in one direction with no less effective activity and opposition. As a result, the pair has so far failed to overcome the key historical resistance of this area (1.32) and remains tied to the daily short-term trend (1.3135). Work in the zone of the past correction and consolidation will most likely provoke the development of a full-fledged downward correction, the main reference point of which is the area of 1.2870-90, which now combines the efforts of the upper border of the weekly cloud (1.2870) and the daily medium-term trend (1.2890).

At the moment, the main advantage on H1 is on the side of players on the downside. The key resistances are currently within the range of 1.3134-54 (Central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend), further attention will continue to be focused on overcoming the level of 1.32 not only on H1, but also on upper halves. In case of further decline, support for the classic pivot levels that serve as guidelines within the day are now located on 1.3013 - 1.2938 - 1.2817.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)